by 
Three
weeks
ago
I
wrote
a
piece
about
the
role
that
a
“Rust
Belt
Diaspora,”
or
the
people
who
relocated
from
Rust
Belt
to
Sun
Belt
states
over
the
last
50
years,
could
play
in
Rust
Belt
revitalization.
In
that
piece
I
noted
that
there
are
many
people
who
seek
to
maintain
a
connection
with
where
they
(or
their
parents)
used
to
live,
and
that’s
partly
expressed
by
fan
support
in
major
professional
sports
leagues.
I
used
the
example
of
Detroit
Lions
fans
nearly
equaling
the
number
of
hometown
fans
in
Phoenix,
Houston
and
San
Francisco
last
season,
reckoning
that
they
weren’t
all
traveling
from
Michigan
to
see
the
Lions.
Also
in
that
piece,
I
did
a
back-of-the-napkin
estimate
of
Rust
Belt
to
Sun
Belt
migration
from
1970-2020.
My
estimate,
if
accurate,
would
outpace
any
significant
domestic
migration
pattern
ever
seen
in
the
U.S.
–
dwarfing
the
Great
Migration,
Dust
Bowl,
perhaps
even
America’s
westward
expansion
following
the
Louisiana
Purchase
in
1803
and
continuing
for
the
next
century.
It’s
worth
posting
here
again
so
you
can
understand
the
scope:
_________________________
For
the
past
few
weeks
I’ve
been
trying
to
find
research
that
quantifies
Rust
Belt
to
Sun
Belt
migration.
Seems
to
me
there’s
an
academic
or
PhD
candidate
who
wrote
a
paper
on
the
outflow
of
residents
from
the
Northeast
and
Midwest
to
the
South
and
Southwest
from,
say,
1970-2020,
but
I
haven’t
found
it.
So
I
decided
to
make
a
crude
estimate.
Let’s
see
how
it
works.
I
set
out
to
look
at
population
growth
figures
for
all
50
states
between
1970-2020.
I
classified
all
50
states
by
what
I
determined
to
be
their
Rust
Belt,
Sun
Belt
and
non-Rust/Sun
Belt
type.
Using
my
judgement
I
categorized
13
states
as
Rust
Belt,
15
states
as
Sun
Belt,
and
the
remaining
22
as
neither.
You
can
see
how
I
designated
them
on
the
map
below.
It’s
one
version
of
a
Rust
Belt/Sun
Belt
framing
at
a
state
level;
your
map
may
look
different:
My next
step
was
to
analyze
decennial
population
growth
for
the
designated
Rust
Belt
and
Sun
Belt
states,
and
compare
their
growth
rates
with
the
total
growth
rate
of
the
U.S.
over
the
same
period.
In
this
step
I
found
that
between
1970-2020
the
total
population
of
the
U.S.
grew
by
63%,
from
203.4
million
to
331.4
million.
That
works
out
to
a
10.3%
increase
per
decade.
Of
course,
we
know
that
the
nation’s
growth
wasn’t
distributed
equally,
so
I
grouped
the
states
by
their
designated
categories
and
analyzed
their
growth
rates.
The
Sun
Belt-designated
states
grew
by
119%
over
the
same
period,
averaging
a
17%
increase
per
decade.
Non-Sun/Rust
Belt
states
grew
by
67%
over
the
period.
Their
growth
rate
of
10.9%
per
decade
is
essentially
the
same
as
the
10.3%
rate
for
the
U.S.
overall.
The
Rust
Belt
states?
They
grew
by
just
under
19%
between
1970-2020,
or
about
3.5%
per
decade.
Read
the
rest
of
this
piece
at
The
Corner
Side
Yard.
Pete
Saunders
is
a
writer
and
researcher
whose
work
focuses
on
urbanism
and
public
policy.
Pete
has
been
the
editor/publisher
of
the
Corner
Side
Yard,
an
urbanist
blog,
since
2012.
Pete
is
also
an
urban
affairs
contributor
to
Forbes
Magazine’s
online
platform.
Pete’s
writings
have
been
published
widely
in
traditional
and
internet
media
outlets,
including
the
feature
article
in
the
December
2018
issue
of
Planning
Magazine.
Pete
has
more
than
twenty
years’
experience
in
planning,
economic
development,
and
community
development,
with
stops
in
the
public,
private
and
non-profit
sectors.
He
lives
in
Chicago.
Photo:
A
black
swan
in
Australia,
via
wikimedia.org
Credit:
Flagstaffotos,
under
CC
3.0
License.
Go to Source
Author: Pete Saunders
